CoreLogic released its listings data this week, which covers the total number of homes listed for sale in Australia today.
Listings data is meaningful because it represents the supply of housing in the sale market.
For me, it’s also the best form of feedback on whether people are feeling the pinch of interest rate rises.
Nationally, there are about 130,000 properties listed for sale right now – 13 per cent lower than this time last year, and 26 per cent lower than the 5-year average.
The 5-year average is the one I’m most interested in. Our population is about 10 per cent larger today than it was 5 years ago.
In other words, supply is down 26 per cent while demand is up 10 per cent.
It’s a significant reason behind why house prices are increasing by 1 per cent each month across the country.
The numbers are even more extreme in the smaller capital cities of Brisbane, Adelaide and Perth.
Total listings are down 40, 42 and 45 per cent respectively in these markets against their 5-year average.
It’s no coincidence these markets are growing the fastest today – up by more than 1 per cent monthly.
There is a consensus forming that when interest rates come down prices will take off again.
I think it’s already happening and will only accelerate as people start to get more and more comfortable that rates are either staying put or, potentially, coming down.
Lots of opinions circulating, but the numbers never lie, and they show us property values are driven by two things: supply and demand.
